June began with much promise in Afghanistan. The big Peace Jirga had just concluded in Kabul and, while it was not as successful as billed, it was a start.  Great things were expected from Mohammad Hanif Atmar, the Minister of Interior and General Stanley McCrystal in the coming months leading up to the July 2011 deadline for the start of withdrawal of American troops. General McCrystal, NATO and coalition commander was expected to achieve “measurable success” in the ground war and Atmar was supposed to reform the National Police by going after corruption.  Both tasks are absolutely crucial and absolutely necessary for success in Afghanistan.  These were two of the shining lights expected to illuminate the path ahead.

     However, they were both gone by the end of the month, political casualties in a very political war.  June proved to be a cruel month for these two Golden Boys in Kabul.  First, there was the firing of the Minister of the Interior.  He was highly regarded by the diplomatic community, and often mentioned as the heir apparent to President Karzai.  Atmar was a very charming man with a talent for charming the embassy crowd into believing he had the ability, insight, and courage to save Afghanistan.  Unfortunately for him, all that came to a screeching halt on 6 June when Karzai relieved him.

     This action sent career diplomats running for the smelling salts because this was not supposed to happen, not to the proud, sophisticated British-educated Atmar who had recently made the rounds in Washington and received rave reviews from administration officials and members of congress. Judging from the media attention showered on him, it appeared that Atmar was the chosen one. However, no amount of international fawning could save him; on June 6^th President Karzai made the decision to relieve the very smooth, eloquent and marginally effective minister and replace him with a high-ranking, semi-literate general from the Afghan National Army.  

     Karzai’s spokesman said the president had lost confidence in Atmar as a result of a security breach at the recently concluded Peace Jirga here in Kabul.  There may be a grain of truth is this because a couple of suicide bombers did cause a stir on the first day.  However, this is Afghanistan, and if allowing suicide bombers to penetrate Kabul were a firing offense, Atmar would have been fired long ago.  The more likely cause is Atmar was becoming increasingly independent of the palace and was beginning to believe all the international praise coming his way.  There was no way Karzai could allow this to happen, not here in Afghanistan where perception is everything and reality is in very short supply.  Whatever the reason, he was the first Golden Boy to go down in June.

     With Kabul still reeling from the loss of Atmar, the city was simply not prepared for the much bigger bomb dropped on 22 June. It was on this day that the unthinkable happened.   This is the day General Stan McCrystal was relieved as commander of all coalition forces in Afghanistan, making him the second Golden Boy lost in June.

     There was incredible irony in the way General McCrystal, hand-picked by President Obama, lost his job.  It was not over a high level policy disagreement or an issue of strategy or a serious breach with our major allies in Afghanistan.  Any of these reasons would be understandable and acceptable, perhaps even honorable if the circumstances were just right.  What brought him down was a glorified, tell-all gossip article in Rolling Stone magazine, a rock and roll publication not known for serious intellectual stimulation and certainly not a place where a serious reader would expect to see major foreign policy issues debated. 

    At its core, the article was very thin on hard news, relying mostly on unguarded comments from McCrystal’s staff, comments made, no doubt, under the mistaken belief that they were off the record.  These comments were carefully woven into a story designed to paint a distorted picture that the general was somehow out of control.  In the end, it was the banality of it all that was so unseemly, much like Richard Nixon losing his presidency over a bungled, third-rate burglary or General George Patton being killed by a runaway truck at the end of World War II.  To say it was grossly unfair is both absolutely true and absolutely irrelevant.  In a political war, there is no defending a political indiscretion.

     While the international set is focused on Kabul to see how these seismic shifts will play out, it is good to remember that the war in Afghanistan will not be won in Kabul; it can only be lost here.  The real focus should be down south, in Kandahar and Helmand where a real war appears to be taking place.  The recent major operation in Helmand Province did not live up to expectation and the upcoming operation in Kandahar, designed to push the Taliban out of their birth place, will be a real test of coalition and Afghan forces.

     With all the turmoil and surprises June brought, June is now history and we are into July.  However, it was instructive.  One of the timeless lessons we learned again is simply this-it is not good to invest too much hope in any individual, no matter how charismatic  the individual may be, regardless of resumes and press releases.   No one person can save Afghanistan, not any number of Golden Boys.  No one is indispensible; anyone can be replaced.  To succeed will require a coordinated, determined team effort with everyone pulling together to accomplish a well defined common goal.

     For the troops fighting and dying in Afghanistan, none of this high level political maneuvering really means much to them.  They still have a war to fight and their war is becoming very costly indeed.  Lost in all the media attention devoted to the Golden Boys is this grim, sobering statistic: June was the deadliest month in the nine year war for NATO soldiers.  One hundred and one were killed in Afghanistan last month.