Mao-tse-Tung once quipped that all political power comes from the barrel of a gun. Apparently, he never spent much time in Afghanistan. Here, real political power neither comes from the barrel of a gun nor from legally established bodies such as the Afghan parliament or the office of the president. There are no pure political parties here, at least not ones that would be recognized as political parties by Americans. Here, raw political power is based on tribal identity. In essence, the various ethnic tribes that inhabit Afghanistan are the political parties and elections will always follow tribal lines just like an earthquake follows fault lines. Tribal identity is much more powerful than national identity. Nationalism, as Americans understand it, doesn’t mean much here become the concept of one nation united doesn’t mean much here.

Nations come and go in this part of the world, borders are drawn and re-drawn, names change. The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan clearly illustrated this because the border, drawn in the late 19th century by the British, is an arbitrary, some would say imaginary, line that was supposed to separate what was then India from Afghanistan. Now, what was once western India has become Pakistan and neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan recognizes the border, known as the infamous Durand Line.

The problem with the Durand Line, then and now, is it slices through the largest and most powerful tribe in Afghanistan, the Pashtuns. As a result, Pashtuns to the east and west of this line simply ignore it, crossing back and forth at will, just as they have done for centuries. They know something that the diplomats and foreign ambassadors fail to grasp; that such arbitrary lines, drawn by foreigners, are trivial irritants that will pass with time. While the average Afghan may not be well versed in the intricacies of power politics, they do understand that, in the outside world, far removed from the rugged mountains they call home, there are no permanent alliances, only permanent interests, and that they, the Afghans, are pawns in this great, timeless game that world powers play. Under these conditions, blind obedience and loyalty to a nation created by foreigners that may not exist next year seems silly indeed.

To even call Afghanistan a nation is stretching the definition of what it means to be a nation. At best, we can call Afghanistan a loose federation, or holding company, of various tribes. One of the key characteristics of a nation is a common language. That characteristic does not exist here. There is no common language that unites the people of Afghanistan. The various tribes, such as Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Harzaras speak different languages, such as Pashto, Dari, and Urdu as well as countless dialects and sub-dialects, each as different from the other as English is from French. Neither is there a shared value system. This usually comes from a strong sense of nationalism and a deep respect for the nation’s laws. None of this exists here. Another characteristic of a real nation is a shared system of values. There are no shared values here.

After the Afghans defeated the Soviets, the warlords filled the power vacuum and total anarchy swept over the country. During this period, survival was the primary objective. Then, when the Taliban seized power, a brutal form of totalitarianism ruled the country with an iron fist. Again, the name of the game was survival from one day to the next. Under these conditions, with no consistent, reliable government in Kabul providing anything approaching leadership, the people turned to the only source of direction and guidance they knew and trusted-the tribe. The tribe has always been there and always will be. Unlike governments and foreign powers that come and go, the tribe is eternal. The tribe never fails. When you have nowhere else to go, the tribe must take you in.

Now, there is a new foreign power in Afghanistan that wants very much to bring freedom and democracy to this broken, war-torn country. The idea is to show that a strong, effective central government can diminish tribal influence and lead to a successful, prosperous, united Afghanistan, complete with national elections, resulting in one big happy family where everybody loves everybody. Last year, this coalition of idealistic nations was determined to show the world that Afghanistan was capable of holding a nation-wide election to select a president and members of the parliament.

Last spring, 43 presidential candidates registered for the August election. Most never had a chance, many were illiterate and some were criminals. The ones that posed the greatest threat to the incumbent, President Karzai, were picked off, one at a time, with offers of a governorship in any of Afghanistan’s 34 states, or a cabinet post as a minister.

The August 20th election eliminated all opposition except one, a highly-respected former minister named Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. Since neither Abdullah Abdullah nor Karzai got the required 50% vote plus one, under the election rules a run-off election was scheduled for November. The coalition and the international press hyped this coming showdown as if it were the Super Bowl. Thousands of polling places had to be secured across the country. Most of the Afghan National Police and Army were diverted to performing election security. Foreign news services devoted whole broadcasts to the speculation that Abdullah Abdullah would defeat Karzai. It was a heady time to be in Kabul and possibly witness the iron grip of tribalism finally defeated by the people.

The Afghans, on the other hand, were not buying into the election hysteria. They listened to the news reports and read the papers and smiled. A lot of the polling at the time showed that Abdullah Abdullah was ahead. Polling data was new to the Afghans and they didn’t really understand it. What they did understand was Karzai, as a Pashtun, represented 43% of the population and Abdullah Abdullah, a Tajik, represented only 26%. Democracy may be something new to Afghans and they might not understand all the subtle nuances of the rights of the minority but they have the basics of “one man one vote” down pat —three lions and a goat vote on what’s for dinner.

In the end, the much anticipated showdown never happened. Three days before the run-off, Abdullah-Abdullah, the wonder boy who was going to shatter tribalism, saw the handwriting on the wall and suddenly withdrew, claiming voter fraud and a lot of other bad things. The diplomatic community was in a tizzy for a couple of days because nobody knew what to do. Was Karzi actually the winner? Would there be an unrising? Riots in the streets? Finally, a special representative from the UN declared Karzai the winner, everybody breathed a sigh of relief and the international community put the best face possible on the whole, ugly episode.

So now, the Pashtuns, who have produced the kings of Afghanistan for the past three hundred years, are still in power and are officially determined to defeat the Taliban and bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan. At least that’s what President Karzai told the London Conference last month. And the Taliban? What’s their tribal affiliation? If you guessed Pashtun, you’re correct. The overwhelming majority of the Taliban are Pashtuns. The outlook for goats in Afghanistan is not good.